The road to Copenhagen continues and one of the power-players is making a statement as far as committing to CO2 cuts. Thus far, the EU has made a big commitment to cuts over the next few decades, the U.S. and China (until now) have been elusive with specifics, and Russia is sticking to the Kyoto baseline numbers that basically let them grow without making cuts due to an accounting aberration.

In the larger context, developing nations are asking that industrialized nations make deep emissions cut commitments. According to a new article today, China is doing just that. Top policy maker Su Wei, Director-General of the Climate Change Department at the National Development and Reform Commission (that’s quite a title) said that China’s carbon emissions will begin decreasing by 2050.

This is pretty big- China recently became the world’s largest emitter of carbon emissions and a commitment from them to reduce those emissions makes an impactful statement. Capping carbon emissions will be a point of much debate and negotiation at Copenhagen, and this kind of statement from China will set a starting point for timeframe and commitments in general. China seems to be agreeing with the call from developing nations that industrialized and developed countries should make cuts first and take responsibility for climate change and global warming that has been caused or influenced heavily by emissions from industrialization.

The Financial Times qutoes Mr. Su as saying, “China's emissions will not continue to rise beyond 2050.”

This is a broad and rather vague statement that makes no specific commitments between now and then, doesn’t hold China to any kind of numbers to reduce by then or caps on how much their emissions can/will grow between now and then, but it does lay the groundwork for the timeframes to be discussed at Copenhagen.

Is 40 years from now a good enough timetable? This will remain to be hashed out at the summit. The main takeaway here is that China is joining the EU in calling for responsibility and cuts by big emitters, though China continues to hold to the belief and approach that their economy needs to continue to grow to help the Chinese escape from poverty.

Is this move more of an effort to buy time and push the problem and need to find solutions back to the next generation? Is that the approach for politicians and diplomats who will arrive at Copenhagen? If so, there will be little progress or hope to hold onto when the leaders come home from the summit. Without specific numbers and real, strategic plans to make those numbers happen on a timetable that everyone agrees on, it will be difficult to enjoy any kind of group continuity of agreement and delayed action.

The key for Copenhagen will be actionable goals, not agreement and lip service.
On the other hand, China is recognizing the issue and making a statement that they want to and plan to do something about it. What exactly they will do, though, is still up in the air- air that is taking on more and more carbon emissions as we speak, commit and negotiate.