Climate Change: The Road to Copenhagen Continues

The politics leading up the Copenhagen summit in December are fascinating. Major players like the EU, China, Russia and the United States are all jockeying for position, some playing a few cards, some holding them- and I’m sure there is some bluffing going on as we still have almost 6 months to go.

I wrote in Politics Report how the Democrat-sponsored climate change bill is still stalled in committees as lawmakers work to satisfy Democrats, and further satisfy Republican legislators whose votes are necessary to pass the bill through the House.

Russia rang in with a long-delayed play of their own.

The general guideline from green groups and developing nations has been a request that Industrialized nations cut their emissions 25-40% from 1990 levels, a number reached in reference to UN climate scientist panel suggested cuts.

Russia, notably quiet thus far about the global climate change situation and the last to offer a plan for mid-term cuts, revealed this week that Russia plans to reduce emissions by 10-15% from their 1990 levels.

Sounds pretty good, right? The catch is that Russia was part of the Soviet Union in 1990 and their emissions were very high- their present levels are already well below the proposed targets. A 15% cut from 1990 levels for them is a 30% rise from their current levels.

"Based on the current situation by 2020 we could cut emissions by about 10-15 percent," Medvedev told Russian state television. Possibly even with a straight face.

According to Medvedev, this target means cumulative cuts of 30 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases from 1990 to 2020.

The current situation appears to be that Russia is playing hardball politics. While its emissions are far lower now than when they were part of the USSR, Russia is still the third largest polluter, behind the U.S. and China.

RussiaGreenhouse gas emissions in 1990: Listed at 2.99 billion tonnes in 2007Greenhouse gas emissions in 2007: 2.2 billion tonnesProjected Greenhouse gas emissions growth by 2020: 3 billion tonnes

"We will not cut off our development potential. We expect our partners to take reciprocal steps. That is why I have said many times -- the problem of climate change has to be addressed by everyone or not at all," said Medvedev.

The cold stare war over global warming has begun in earnest people, get your seat now. 

When Putin was president, Russian officials straight-out said that they would not compromise the comfort of the Russian middle class by committing to greenhouse gas reductions.

Nina Korobova, head of Global Carbon’s Russian clean energy project development operations, offered a more realistic perspective:

"It's a good first step ... but I expect other countries will require bigger reductions from Russia and that will promote further negotiations. I think Russia can easily go to 20 percent (by 2020) ... even in the most pessimistic situations.”

The bottom line here is that Russia is exploiting a numerical discrepancy resulting from their economic crash when the Soviet Union broke up. I respect the fact that they are following the letter of agreements like the Kyoto Protocol, but they are basically ignoring the global call to action around climate change, and doing so vocally and unapologetically.

Under Putin they refused. Under Medvedev they are offering an increase presented as a reduction. This is where the UN needs to draw a firm, no crap line in the sand (far enough up the beach though so the rising sea levels don’t wash it away). Everybody knows that it’s hard to change once you start winking at the goofball in the corner and letting them get away with whatever they want.

The UN needs to step up, Copenhagen needs to step up.