So it turns out the Himalayan Glacier may not be melting by 2035 afterall. The IPCC report from 2007, the one that was supposed to be the best available scientific information, the most reliable source from the best scientists in the world, was apparently quoting an article from New Science, and that article was from a phone interview with someone talking about just a piece of the glacier based on an article that had not been peer reviewed. So, what became a startling prediction in a UN-sponsored study that has been widely read and referenced, turns out to be a single-source quote from a speculative study written up in an unverified paper.

Here is the line from the report in 2007:

"Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." - IPCC Report, 2007

Take whatever amount of time you need to stand up, walk to the window and stare out at the world that is not melting, scratch your head and maybe throw the sugar bowl at the wall in the kitchen- who can you trust?

We’ve got one side telling us that the whole world is melting and by tomorrow night New York City will be underwater. Then on the other side we’ve got people saying it’s all natural, there’s nothing we can do about it, and we certainly aren’t causing it. I tend to look around and think that oil in the water and plastic in the ocean and dark smoke flooding out of smokestacks means that the way we are doing things is no good- whether it causes the Earth to warm or not- and that we need to move on and start living here another way- both as stewards and as admitted and happy parts of interconnected Earth.

But back to the glaciers in the Himalayas and that IPCC report- what happened?

"We are looking into the issue of the Himalayan glaciers, and will take a position on it in the next two or three days," said Rajendra Pachauri, U.N. Head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

What? Doesn’t publishing it in your report mean that is your position? I’m going to go ahead and answer that for you- yes, it does. The basic assertion from the Indian government and others is that there is no scientific evidence behind the assertion, and that while there is alarming melting going on with the glaciers, there are hundreds of them that are hundreds of feet thick and it is beyond the scope of imagination to consider them disappearing completely in 25 years or so.

Maybe that’s why it’s so scary- or maybe that prediction is just plain ridiculous.

Either way, the credibility of the UN panel and of climate change science in general hangs in the balance- not that this determines whether it’s true or not, but this certainly sheds light on the idea that some of the predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt- preferably sustainably harvested salt of course.

Photo Credit: Girl in the Rain (via Flickr under CCL)