Japan made waves with its assertion that it would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2020 last month, and now it is making waves once more saying it may not. Theirs is just one of many emissions cut propositions that hinge on a larger, global agreement coming out of the Copenhagen summit this December. I can’t blame them- their economy isn’t doing a gangbusters job as it is, and if they have to deal with the financial and trade challenges that bigger emissions cuts compared to other countries will bring, then they will fall further and harder than other countries- especially developing neighbors like China and India.

I expect their line will become standard among the nations who have put out emissions cut numbers over the past few months. With the U.S. not having any kind of commitments in place right now for 2020, things are not looking good for Copenhagen to be the kind of game-changing, ground-breaking international agreement it hopes to be, let alone the kind of ambitious showing of political solidarity we actually need to get the world moving in one direction. No Hollywood ending expected on this one.

"The possibility is not zero. As environment minister, I want to go ahead with this pledge, but the government announced it with a precondition at the United Nations (climate change summit last month) so of course it could change," said Japanese Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa.

An EU draft report says that developing countries will need an estimated $100 Billion euros ($150+ billion)… ANNUALLY. So between now and 2020, that’s $1.5 Trillion. And that’s an estimate, so you know the real number would balloon- probably at least double.

Developing nations say rich countries need to make 40% cuts by 2020 below 1990 levels to avoid climate change disaster. They might be right. Everything I read and see around tomorrow’s 350.org international day of climate action says that we are way over the 350 parts per million that we need to be, and that we need dramatic, immediate action to make any kind of meaningful change.

"The climate is changing faster than expected and the risks this poses can already be seen. We experience widespread melting of ice, rising global sea levels and increased frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heatwaves," said an EU draft report. Ah, but what does Fox News say…

So it sounds like Japan is balking on 25% cuts unless everyone else says go on them, the U.S. isn’t saying boo (save Obama’s 17% suggestion), and developing nations are saying we all need to be doing more like 40%. Those are major disparities. Not to mention the inattainability of a number like $1.5 Trillion from the world over 10 years.

All of this amounts to the kind of massive paradigm shift that 350.org is calling for- and while that makes for good publicity and a good movement, it doesn’t easily translate into good politics, as Obama himself may attest to. I myself would love to see a radical declaration of solidarity and an ambitious, economically painful (unless we rewrite the rules, which we’ll need to) but long-term successful plan for keeping the world going.

Somehow we will have to start viewing sustainability as success, not growth in the classic economic sense. That will take some ideological emissions cuts of its own.