This is where the real climate deal is being done- alongside the Copenhagen deal there is a conversation going on between the U.S. and China- and whatever these two decide is what the rest of the world will eventually agree to- perhaps not to the letter but certainly in principle. Why? Here’s why:

1.    The U.S. represents the Industrialized world- while the EU has a backpack full of issues with us, if we are game to sign on to a deal, the EU is most certainly game.

2.    China is the stumbling block for emissions limits. If they agree to something that the U.S. actually supports, well watch out people- that would be the game changer.

Imagine- the U.S. shakes hands and signs a deal that cuts our greenhouse gas emissions and includes China capping theirs. That would be huge. As the U.S. has already thrown our hat into the $100 billion per year aid package ring, that’s pretty much the only thing we have left to come to agreement on, folks. Cuts and limits. It won’t happen at Copenhagen, it will happen in the side room between the U.S. and China.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a speech this week announcing the U.S. backing of the $100 billion deal, but she carefully qualified it by saying that it would be difficult to do that unless there is complete transparency from China in the monitoring of its greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint reduction efforts.

Basically, the U.S. is willing to put up our share of the money as long as China is willing to let international groups come in and check on their progress- which sounds like a pretty fair deal, in my opinion. But then, I don’t know if I’d want the government coming into my house to check on my stuff to make sure I did something I said I was going to do either, so I can understand China’s reluctance to sign on to that kind of international scrutiny.

I think they are very aware that they will be the next global superpower, and that they don’t really have to agree to anything they don’t want to agree to right now. They are starting to act like the U.S. And in that case, the only other country that can deal with them is, well, the U.S.

So as President Barack Obama makes his way to Copenhagen, the real relationship I’m keeping my eye on is between his administration and the Chinese government- if that deal can be reached, the rest of the world will follow suit.

In my estimation, I see both the U.S. and China wanting a deal that appeases developing countries- something that the majority of the world can deal with, and at the same time enable both countries to continue to grow their economies at around 3% per year. If they can figure out how to do that while still cutting emissions overall, then no problem, I think we will have a deal, a green handshake, and a thing to toast to on Friday- and if not Friday, then sometime soon.

Photo Credit: aussiegall (via Flickr under CCL)